Bring Your Own Power

The grid isn't coming.

On February 5, Bloom Energy released earnings that confirmed what everyone building data centers already knew but didn't want to say out loud:

Waiting for the grid to catch up is OVER.

Revenue up 36%.

Backlog doubled to $6 billion.

Phones ringing off the hook from hyperscalers who spent the last two years pretending utilities would magically deliver gigawatts on demand.

They won't.

And now the scramble is on.

On-site generation isn't a backup plan anymore.

It's THE plan.

Q4 2025 earnings dropped February 5.

Bloom beat analyst estimates by almost 19%.

But the numbers themselves?

That's not the story.

The story is what those numbers MEAN.

The Revenue Story:

→ Q4 revenue: $777.7 million (up 35.9% year-over-year)

→ Full year 2025: $2.02 billion (up 37.3% from 2024)

→ Adjusted EBITDA: $271.6 million for the year

→ Free cash flow POSITIVE for the second consecutive year

The Backlog Story:

→ Product backlog: More than doubled year-over-year to $6 billion

→ Total backlog (product + service): ~$20 billion

→ Service margins hit 20% for the first time (eight consecutive profitable quarters)

The 2026 Guidance:

→ Revenue: $3.1 billion to $3.3 billion (that's 50%+ growth)

→ Non-GAAP gross margin: ~32%

→ Operating income: $125 million to $475 million

→ Cash from operations: ~$200 million

CEO KR Sridhar at Davos in January:

"We went from zero hyperscalers directly talking to us to pretty much every hyperscaler talking to us. In the first half of 2025, our phones wouldn't stop ringing."

Translation:

The biggest players in tech — Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta — realized something fundamental:

Grid connection timelines are 3-5 years MINIMUM.

Bloom can deploy on-site power "in as little as a few months."

When you're racing to deploy AI infrastructure...

And PJM just failed to meet reliability targets by 6.6 gigawatts...

You don't wait.

You bring your own goddamn power.

What Bloom Is Shipping Now:

→ Native 800-volt DC power systems (eliminates AC-to-DC conversion waste)

→ Absorption chiller technology that uses waste heat to cut data center electricity consumption by 20%+

→ Manufacturing capacity DOUBLING from 1 GW to 2 GW by end of 2026

Stock jumped from $136.60 to $155.19 the day after earnings.

Wall Street gets it.

The "bring your own power" thesis just got validated.

If you're still building your strategy around grid connections that might come in 2029...

You're already losing.

Microsoft's Michigan projects just hit a wall.

Not a regulatory wall.

A TRUST wall.

On February 8, the Detroit News revealed something that lit a fire under west Michigan:

Four communities signed non-disclosure agreements with Microsoft...

BEFORE the company even identified itself as the buyer.

The Communities:

→ City of Lowell

→ Lowell Township

→ Dorr Township

→ Gaines Charter Township

The Timeline:

Microsoft representative Matt Schneider had local officials sign NDAs almost a YEAR before the company's identity was publicly revealed.

Lowell Township Supervisor Jerry Hale signed in early 2025.

Lowell City Manager Michael Burns signed a separate NDA in January 2026.

Residents didn't learn Microsoft was the mystery buyer until weeks ago.

The Community Response:

Hundreds packed Lowell High School on January 26 when the truth came out.

Microsoft wanted to buy 237 acres at the Covenant Business Park.

No one knew it was Microsoft until that meeting.

Nicole Ronda, Lowell resident:

"There is no trust. If Microsoft wanted to come in and be a good neighbor, why did they need to hide? Why nondisclosure agreements?"

Microsoft's Defense:

"We sometimes use confidentiality agreements during early stages to help protect sensitive commercial information, address security considerations, and ensure we comply with local regulatory and permitting processes."

The Damage:

→ City of Lowell SUSPENDED PARTICIPATION in the project (December 2025)

→ Planning commission meetings canceled multiple times due to overcrowding

→ Rezoning application TABLED at developer's request

→ Residents United for a Healthy Lowell formed organized opposition

Diane Hartmus, Oakland University political science professor:

"Signing an NDA runs headlong into transparency issues. And I don't think it's going to play well with the electorate."

Here's the brutal irony:

On January 13, Microsoft announced its "Community-First AI Infrastructure" pledge.

The whole pitch was about rebuilding trust with communities.

On February 8, the NDA revelations dropped.

That pledge?

It lasted less than four weeks before getting exposed as hollow.

You can't say "Community-First" while hiding behind NDAs.

The residents aren't buying it.

And now Microsoft has a model for what NOT to do.

The opposition movement just crossed a new threshold.

Michigan alone: At least 19 communities have passed or proposed moratoriums.

Nationally: $64 billion in data center projects blocked or delayed.

This isn't fringe activism anymore.

It's organized, bipartisan, and spreading FAST.

This Week's Decisions:

Canton, NC:

Mayor Zeb Smathers:

"We see data centers and crypto technology as a present threat to our community."

Around 50 residents packed a special meeting.

Concerns: energy drain, water use, constant noise, waterway pollution.

The vote wasn't close.

Fulton County, IN:

Decennial Group proposed a 500 MW data center for the town of Akron.

Standing-room-only public hearing.

Area Plan Commission voted 6-1 for the moratorium.

Hood County, TX (The Exception):

This one's different.

The night BEFORE Hood County's vote...

State Senator Paul Bettencourt (R-Houston) — chair of the Senate Committee on Local Government — sent a letter to Attorney General Ken Paxton.

His warning:

Counties lack legal authority to impose moratoriums on data centers.

He cited HB 2559, which he sponsored.

Three commissioners changed their votes overnight.

Final tally: 3-2 AGAINST the moratorium.

Commissioner Dave Eagle:

"I can't tell you how disappointed I am."

Translation:

Texas is FIGHTING BACK against local opposition.

The state is signaling it will OVERRIDE local control to keep data centers flowing.

That's a VERY different posture than Michigan, North Carolina, or Indiana.

If you're choosing where to build...

Texas will back you up.

Everywhere else?

You're on your own.

Marjorie Steele leads the Michigan Economic Development Responsibility Alliance.

She's been tracking the opposition movement across the state.

Her assessment:

"It's cutting across all political, socioeconomic and cultural lines. These data centers are being opposed in every community where they are proposed, including communities which are heavily industrialized already, which are rural agricultural, which are heavily Republican, heavily Democrat, wealthy, poor, and everywhere in between."

This is bipartisan fury.

More than 130 Bridge Michigan readers named data centers as their TOP ISSUE for 2026 candidates.

State Rep. Jennifer Wortz (R) is preparing statewide moratorium legislation.

Three Democratic senators introduced a package to set guardrails on water and energy use.

When Republicans AND Democrats both want to slam the brakes...

You've got a problem bigger than PR can fix.

The deadline is Sunday.

February 16, 2026: PJM must file major tariff revisions with FERC covering:

→ Co-location arrangements: Specific terms and conditions for data centers connecting behind-the-meter with on-site generation

→ Three new transmission service options: Interim non-firm, Firm Contract Demand, Non-Firm Contract Demand

→ Behind-the-meter generation (BTMG) reforms: New MW thresholds, three-year transition period for existing customers

This filing stems from FERC's December 18 order that found PJM's existing rules "unjust and unreasonable" for modern AI-scale loads.

What Happens Next:

→ March 18: Responses to PJM's brief due

→ April 17: Replies due

→ Paper hearing to determine final rates and terms

Why It Matters:

PJM is the largest grid operator in the country.

Whatever rules emerge here become the TEMPLATE for MISO, SPP, and potentially ERCOT.

The December auction failed to meet reliability targets by 6.6 GW.

Data centers accounted for 40% of costs.

FERC is not letting PJM wing it anymore.

The rules are changing.

And the deadline is 72 hours away.

Senator Bernie Sanders is still pushing for a national moratorium.

MS NOW interview (February 11):

"We have not a clue. We are totally unprepared for what is coming. We've got to slow this thing down."

The Washington Post editorial board (February 11):

Called his proposal "the worst idea yet."

Industry Response:

Steve DelBianco, Data Center Coalition president:

"We look for communities that want us. If we have a community that has open arms, good land, plenty of power, we will build there."

The problem:

Communities with "open arms, good land, plenty of power" are getting HARDER to find.

Not easier.

Bloom Energy:

→ Q4 revenue: $777.7M (+35.9% YoY)

→ 2026 guidance: $3.1B-$3.3B (50%+ growth)

→ Product backlog: $6B (doubled YoY)

→ Manufacturing capacity: 2 GW by end of 2026

Moratorium Tracker:

→ Michigan: 19+ communities with active or proposed moratoriums

→ National: $64B in projects blocked or delayed

→ States with local moratoriums: 14+

PJM Status:

→ February 16: Major tariff filing deadline

→ December 2025 shortfall: 6.6 GW below reliability target

→ Data center cost share: 40% of capacity auction costs

Stargate Update:

→ Michigan site ("The Barn") in Saline Township: 1+ GW, construction early 2026

→ Total planned capacity: ~7 GW across multiple sites

→ Investment target: $500B by end of 2025 buildout

If You're In Trucking/Heavy Haul:

The on-site generation buildout is ACCELERATING.

Bloom is doubling manufacturing capacity to 2 GW annually.

That's fuel cells, controls, infrastructure — all delivered to job sites.

But here's the catch:

You need to know which states are ACTUALLY going to build before you position equipment.

Hood County shows Texas will override local opposition to keep projects moving.

Michigan, North Carolina, Indiana?

They're going the opposite direction.

Don't chase projects in hostile territory.

Follow the states that WANT the work.

If You're In Electrical/Power Systems:

Bloom's 800-volt DC systems are now standard.

That's a different spec than traditional AC infrastructure.

The absorption chiller technology (using waste heat for cooling) requires new HVAC/mechanical integration expertise.

The hyperscalers aren't waiting for grid connections.

They're buying on-site power that deploys in MONTHS, not years.

If you can install and integrate fuel cell systems...

You have work lined up for the next five years.

If You're In Construction:

The NDA backlash in Michigan is a WARNING.

Community engagement isn't optional anymore.

Developers who hide behind shell companies and confidentiality agreements are CREATING their own opposition.

Projects that survive will have:

→ Visible, engaged developers (not mystery buyers)

→ Secured power (on-site or contracted)

→ Community benefit agreements IN WRITING

→ Transparency on water use and environmental impacts

Projects that fail will be the ones assuming 2023's quiet approvals still work in 2026.

They don't.

If You're In Equipment Supply:

Fuel cell systems are the GROWTH MARKET.

Bloom's backlog doubled to $6 billion.

Their 2026 revenue guidance implies 50%+ growth.

That's not a trend.

That's a STRUCTURAL SHIFT.

Grid-independent installations need EVERYTHING:

Controls. Switchgear. Distribution. Backup systems.

The spec is changing from "grid-first with backup"...

To "on-site-first with grid as backup."

If you're still stocking for traditional grid-connected builds...

You're stocking for yesterday's market.

February 16, 2026: PJM tariff revisions due to FERC (co-location, BTMG, new transmission services)

March 18, 2026: Responses to PJM's initial brief due

April 17, 2026: Replies to responses due

June 30, 2026: PJM next capacity auction (2028/29 delivery year)

September 2026 (target): Potential PJM emergency auction, if approved

Bloom Energy's earnings tell the whole story.

The grid is failing to keep up.

PJM is 6.6 GW short.

Connection timelines are measured in YEARS.

The hyperscalers need power NOW.

So they're buying it directly.

On-site. Deployed in months.

Bloom's revenue guidance — $3.1 billion to $3.3 billion for 2026 — is the market pricing in this reality.

On-site generation went from backup plan to PRIMARY STRATEGY.

Meanwhile, the political opposition is hardening.

Nineteen Michigan communities.

Moratoriums in North Carolina, Indiana, counties across the map.

NDAs that were supposed to protect developer identities are now WEAPONS against them.

Texas is the outlier.

The state is actively BLOCKING local moratoriums to keep projects flowing.

But Texas is Texas.

Most states don't have the same appetite to override their own communities.

The Winners In 2026:

→ Projects with secured on-site power

→ Developers with GENUINE community relationships (not NDAs)

→ States that want the jobs badly enough to fight local opposition

→ Equipment suppliers for the off-grid buildout

The Losers:

→ Projects dependent on grid connections that won't come

→ Developers hiding behind shell companies

→ Anyone assuming political goodwill that no longer exists

The grid isn't coming.

The communities are organized.

The only way through is AROUND.

Bring your own power.

That's Issue #6.

The fuel cell thesis just got validated.

The NDA thesis just got destroyed.

Plan accordingly.

Not subscribed? newsletter.thedcpipeline.com

Talk next week.

Edem

The DC Pipeline: Weekly intelligence for truckers, contractors, equipment suppliers, and lenders serving the data center buildout.

Got intel from the field? Reply to this email.